Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Taipei

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

莊子毅

40th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cheng Chun-You (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 藍白 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yu Zhang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

左承勳

43rd • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 王上熏 (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oh Oh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Night S (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.56
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jan Ray Teh

45th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tai-Yuan Chen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 陸宗彥 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs kou rui yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs MIN FENG CHIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kieran Moon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs HanYang Chang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.