Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ricardo Morgado Morata

46th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesus Garcia Gomez-Valades (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose Luis Olivares Rodriguez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eugenio Correa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ramses Tortajada Herrero (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Josep Tarrida (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.90
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Martín Santesteban

66th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrés Sánchez García (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jorge Cerdá (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Luis Olivares Rodriguez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Javier Endika García Campo (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesus Rafael Matheus (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 23:77

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Antonio López Ibañez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Roldán Nogal (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R8	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.90
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

José Yeray González Mücke

77th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ismael Ruiz Fernandez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Javier Sarmiento Cantador (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carles Torres (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Agusti Guerola Garcia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Gustavo Caperan

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francisco Javier Camacho Vargas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs José Yeray González Mücke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ismael Ruiz Fernandez (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.