Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Juan Chacon

5th • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jurdan González Pinilla (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Sanchez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alberto Ferrero González (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Amorín García (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Juan Lucas Sánchez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.91
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.12
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Andrés Sánchez García

75th • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martín Santesteban (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Pantoja Sánchez (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Víctor Tejera (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Héctor Serino Pérez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Javier Endika García Campo (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.74
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jorge Carrasco Pastor

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Roldán Nogal (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Javier Sarmiento Cantador (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Jimena Ortigosa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.12
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.