Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

wang su

15th • 4-2-1

29%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lin Yancheng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chunan Xiong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs remilia scarlet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Weimu Song (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Wen Jun Zheng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Xinyu Gu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.82
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.53
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.44

Bangjian You

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Moran Zhuang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 快乐长存 (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yongliang Ding (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs JIA NIAN WANG (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

yinfei li

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gan Yan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YINLI GU (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cheng Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 宇田龚 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

刘迪

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.