Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026 - France
Fai, Rising Rebellion
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Antoine BEUCHER (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mathis Grandemange (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eric Steuer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 45:55
Round 8: Loss vs Ludovic Zgajner (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Antoine Billy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
34th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Guillaume Moutardier (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cédric Florent (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Louis Angilbert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Antoine Billy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Coutellec (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Victor Lenoble (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
44th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.0
Surp
4.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs esteban cerezuela (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ronan Pasquier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jonathan YUSTE (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Nicolas Pilven (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Savinien Castel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Clément LOUBIERE (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Bruckert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Pierre Selebran (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexandre Lebec (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marc Germond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Vincent Luong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Frédéric Marigo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Pilven (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs LUDOVIC TEUMA (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Quentin Aubel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.