National Championship 2026 - Singapore - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Tan

25th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

95:5

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs An Zhu (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Seb Kho (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Klein Tian (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

95:5

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ojus Sharma (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eugene Neo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Loss	✓	0.93	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.57
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.62
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.11
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.41
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Denny Koh

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reeve Chia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bernie L (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derrick Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Gideon Law

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yu Heng Chew (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dusk Low (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kai Yang Yuen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Deitrich Mohan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Looi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Reeve Chia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas On (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chuan Yang Loy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jason Chua

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Lim (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Achilles DC (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Ryan Poon

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mervyn Lin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.