Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Liverpool

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob Catton

1st • 10-1-0

82%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

5.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Boog (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Porter (Unknown)

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henrik Moilanen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs George Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.25
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.39
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.72
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.13
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

Jake Warburton

31st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs George Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs (Zamun) Juan Eduardo Corbalan Duzman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.48
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Katherina Walshe-Grey

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Ashall (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dave Kerr

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 33:67

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.