Battle Hardened: Liverpool - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Finlay Shepherd

2nd • 9-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kit Valentine (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs George Keys (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs George Douglas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alex Chițu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Rob Catton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.26
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.32
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.38
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.63
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Seb Ball

20th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Henrik Moilanen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kit Valentine (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ed Cardall (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Piergiorgio Villani

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Blower (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Natasha Collins (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christian Parisotto (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas van Dijk (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Harbinson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas McCormick (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Hazell (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Denis Mandrysz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bogdan Popa

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damon Harbinson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Calf (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs René Schep (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Viktor Sojka

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Davies (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Reuben Thomas

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Clark (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.