Briar at Battle Hardened: Hong Kong 2025

Briar

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Terry Yuen

5th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rocko Yan (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

ricky leung

10th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bentley Tse (Dromai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Mok Marcus

13th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Haozen Ho (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ricky leung (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kyle WKL

25th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Rhinar) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Some Body (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Adam Romano

27th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Wilson Cheung (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Haodong Sun

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.