Briar at Battle Hardened: Hong Kong 2025

Briar

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Terry Yuen

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rocko Yan (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

ricky leung

10th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bentley Tse (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.87
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Mok Marcus

13th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Haozen Ho (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Oscilio) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ricky leung (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kyle WKL

25th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Some Body (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Adam Romano

27th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Wilson Cheung (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Haodong Sun

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.