Battle Hardened: Hong Kong 2025 - Ira, Crimson Haze (SAGE)

Ira, Crimson Haze

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mikko Pena

2nd • 6-3-0

11%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

11% (1/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.99
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.29
R9	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Yoshiaki Okamoto

9th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hoklong wong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bentley Tse (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.27

Danial Faizsal

14th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kugane Gaming (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Romano (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Youngblut (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs ricky leung (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Takahito Natsume

15th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bentley Tse (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Haozen Ho (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Some Body

26th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wilson Cheung (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None ()

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bentley Tse (Dromai) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle WKL (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kugane Gaming

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Masayuki Hori

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Romano (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hoklong wong

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chun On Anson Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.