Chane at Battle Hardened: Hong Kong 2025

Chane

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Evanking Chiu

1st • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Yip (Rhinar) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyle WKL (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Isaac Lee

3rd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ricky leung (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bun Ar (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bun Ar

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Haodong Sun (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Chris Javier Mapalo

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs CYK Lionel (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chan Lion (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paul van Gijssel

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rocko Yan (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Lee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

KAZUMA SUZUKI

11th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kugane Gaming (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chun On Anson Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Rocko Yan

16th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.64
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Chan Lion

17th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Some Body (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs ricky leung (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Haodong Sun (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jian Botor (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

CYK Lionel

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Rhinar) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Haozen Ho

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.