Rhinar at Battle Hardened: Hong Kong 2025
Rhinar
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
4.4
Diff
40:60
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs CYK Lionel (Chane) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
55:45
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Loss vs erwin leung (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45
R4
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Win vs Bentley Tse (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs Kyle WKL (Briar) - Expected: 44:56
Round 6: Win vs Nathan Youngblut (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oldhim | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Briar | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Valda Brightaxe | 20% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.