Battle Hardened: Houston - Dash I/O (LL)

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Norberto Hernandez

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Denton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Ige (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Starnes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

85:15

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Mario Regalado (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Martin Morford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Hemal Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.22
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Justin Fryar

16th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Denton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Evan Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

John Hathaway

24th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Vladimir Del Valle (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Starnes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Hemal Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Eric Harris (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	LL	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.