Battle Hardened: Houston - Bravo, Star of the Show (LL)

Bravo, Star of the Show

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

3rd • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Sean Soderman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Will Matthews (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Rob Denton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Hemal Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.15
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.51
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.05
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.02
R8	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Michael Feng

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Evan Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Vladimir Del Valle (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Justin Fryar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.21
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Andrew Ige

17th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Norberto Hernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Evan Ford (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.