Battle Hardened: Houston - Briar, Warden of Thorns (LL)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joseph Schelling

2nd • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.8

Surp

5.1

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Eric Harris (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Tayler Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

20:80

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

35:65

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

20:80

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	LL	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.27
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.98
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.69
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.31
R9	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Dave Cordeiro

10th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Castille (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Ige (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Justin Fryar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Tayler Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R4	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.26
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Will Matthews

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Eric Harris (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Tayler Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.