Battle Hardened: Houston - Chane, Bound by Shadow (LL)

Chane, Bound by Shadow

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bird Cabrera

1st • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Ige (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

85:15

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Connor Nicholls (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Martin Morford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.08
R2	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.07
R4	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.55
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R9	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.36

Illuvial Arnett

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 83:17

55:45

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.11
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.23
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Taylor Nifong

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Mario Regalado (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.