World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Thailand Nationals Championship 2025 - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jakob Kernstock

5th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wipu Junkeaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chantad Tanapisutporn (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sirapop Fungfuang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Phuntawit (Jojo) Lertphunyavuttikul (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.46
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Wachara Oranriksuphak

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Glenn (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tatthep Kasetsin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pongdanai Sriphueak (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sahatsawat Kritsanasub (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs ANnansuo Junkeaw (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.58
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Emmanuel Onate

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Teerawish Kotesiri (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wongsathorn Wongwanichjitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Patrick Prakobhiran

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Prempracha Saensupar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nopphrakorn Kerdsamut (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Techodom Predapan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.