Ira, Scarlet Revenger at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jakob Kernstock

5th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wipu Junkeaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chantad Tanapisutporn (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sirapop Fungfuang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 32:68

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Phuntawit (Jojo) Lertphunyavuttikul (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.51
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.57
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.03
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Wachara Oranriksuphak

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Glenn (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tatthep Kasetsin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pongdanai Sriphueak (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sahatsawat Kritsanasub (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs ANnansuo Junkeaw (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.58
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Emmanuel Onate

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Teerawish Kotesiri (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wongsathorn Wongwanichjitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Patrick Prakobhiran

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Prempracha Saensupar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nopphrakorn Kerdsamut (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Techodom Predapan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.