Arakni, Marionette at World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Thailand Nationals Championship 2025
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Kernstock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emmanuel Onate (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thiwakorn Kanokwanavong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ashila Chuenbanyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Wongsathorn Wongwanichjitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.