Jarl Vetreiði at World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Thailand Nationals Championship 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Wachara Oranriksuphak (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ashila Chuenbanyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Phuntawit (Jojo) Lertphunyavuttikul (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nopphrakorn Kerdsamut (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Prempracha Saensupar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.