Arakni, Solitary Confinement at World Championship

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gary Manttan

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Unknown)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Tom Nguyen (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Max Chapman (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Max Chapman (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Blitz	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jonathan Tjahjono

5th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kaan Cekli (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs bill huynh (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Max Chapman (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ceejay Gordon (Verdance) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tiger Mckenzie (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Blitz	Verdance	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R6	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oliver Hill

22nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Emily Smyth (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Robert Piper (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Young (Dash, Database) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Kaeleb Rundell (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.88
R4	Blitz	Dash, Database	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.47
R6	Blitz	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aidan Ward

27th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Costa (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Kaan Cekli (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

85:15

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs alisa qian (Cindra) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Alister Ling (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Blitz	Cindra	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Blitz	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Kurtis phelps

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brendan Champion (Kayo) - Expected: 71:29

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Max Chapman (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kaan Cekli (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.13
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.