World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Australia - Aurora (Blitz)

Aurora

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kaan Cekli

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Remi Grasset (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kurtis phelps (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Mia Lockhart (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jordan Finch (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Tiger Mckenzie (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Blitz	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Blake Godenzi

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs benji muehlebach (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Hill (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs David (Hao Tian) Peng (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Steven Young (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Gary Manttan (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R3	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tiger Mckenzie

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Andy Pham (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Kaan Cekli (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Nguyen

11th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Coulson (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Brendan Champion (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs bill huynh (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R5	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alister Ling

31st • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Draw vs Kaeleb Rundell (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Kindl (Unknown)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Emily Smyth (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Coulson (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Robert Piper (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Florian	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Freeman Monika

19th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Faron Swingler (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Louis Shum (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Simon Cox (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

bill huynh

20th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Anya Nikoliouk (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Troy Wilson (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Mia Lockhart (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs David (Hao Tian) Peng (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Grace Luckman

37th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Young (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Josh Coyle (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Emily Smyth (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Vynnset) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Blitz	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.