World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Australia - Cindra (Blitz)

Cindra

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Louis Jia

29th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Robert Hall (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Young (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Costa (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Kindl (Unknown)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs David (Hao Tian) Peng (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

alisa qian

36th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Mia Lockhart (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Remi Grasset (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

15:85

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 17:83

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Marcus Costa (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	Blitz	Marlynn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jess Arnesen

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Grace Luckman (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Marlynn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs David Huang (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Marlynn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Naomi Wang

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Regen Cairns (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Piper (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Josh Coyle (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.