World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Australia - Kayo (Blitz)

Kayo

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joon Chien Tan

35th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Kaeleb Rundell (Florian) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Grace Luckman (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Remi Grasset (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Blitz	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R4	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R6	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Matthew Coulson

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Sergey Metlenko (Maxx Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Shum (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Alister Ling (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Cox (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Maxx Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.89
R5	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Brendan Champion

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs benji muehlebach (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Nguyen (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	Blitz	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Blitz	Oscilio	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R4	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.