Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Calling: São Paulo 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Renan Albertino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tales de Mesquita Simioni (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 95:5
Round 3: Win vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Murilo Ronsoni (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pedro Lecey Opitz (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
85:15
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Thiago Lomba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
85:15
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Michael Feng (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
95:5
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lucas Tocci (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 95:5
85:15
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Darcy Camargo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 95% | Win |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R12 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Fabrício Cândido (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs FELIPE WAWRUK VIANA (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
Round 3: Win vs Maurício Tavares (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Feliz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Vinicius Knop (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bruno Santos (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Elias Luiz de Oliveira Neto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Renan Albertino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Furtado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas Sobral (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
Round 2: Loss vs Gustavo Vacilotto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs FELIPE WAWRUK VIANA (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
Round 4: Loss vs Darcy Camargo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Raphael Almeida (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs WEVERSON OLIVEIRA (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eliseu Moreno (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Caio Bal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Win vs Thomás Penchel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Gomes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Caio Bal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 2: Loss vs Vítor Farhat Fernandes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs GUILHERME JACQUES (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Leonardo Paixão Viana (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Draw |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs GUILHERME JACQUES (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Miguel Ardovino (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Coelho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Roberto Cardoso (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Singh Bruno (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Phelipe da Hora (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Fabrício Cândido (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Daniel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Henrique Pereira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.