Calling: São Paulo 2025 - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eliseu Moreno

dropped • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Coelho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fábio Barbosa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs igor pinheiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs João Gabriel Neves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Maykon Silva (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.74
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.96
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.52

Fabrício Cândido

dropped • 2-5-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Celso Figueiredo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matheus Maciel (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs José Moreira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Daniel Luiz

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Giovanetti (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Valdenegro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Juan Traverso (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.