Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: São Paulo 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

José Moreira

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vitor Negri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sidrack Augusto Correia Junior (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matheus Alcantara (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ricardo Torres (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Martin Rodriguez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fabrício Cândido (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Win	✗	0.86	2.03
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Rodrigo Canejo

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Paixão Viana (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs João Foltran (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Fanti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leonardo Tozato (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Felipe Rita (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs JULIO LOBO (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Win	✗	0.86	1.63
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Geraldo Amorim

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs LUCAS DE CASTRO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Renan Pamplona (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Brandao (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josué Santos (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Guilherme De Deus

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Teixeira (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Akio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.