Arakni, Marionette at Calling: São Paulo 2025

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sidrack Augusto Correia Junior

dropped • 6-4-1

55%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Mathias Medina (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paulo Amora (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs José Moreira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Henrique De Almeida Carvalho (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elias Luiz de Oliveira Neto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Tocci (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Feliz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Diego Souza (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Carlos Valdenegro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

55% (6/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.50
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.62
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.44
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Carlos Perilla

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josué Santos (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Akira Hangai

dropped • 1-3-1

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ricardo Bastos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Carlos Barros (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frederico Roque (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.95
R4	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Charles Eduardo

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josué Santos (Unknown)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mateus Barros (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Parra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Cláudio de Salles Pupo Dias

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Favoreto Borges (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcelo Gazzaneo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.