Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-4-1
36%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.5
Surp
3.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Mathias Medina (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paulo Amora (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs José Moreira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Win vs Henrique De Almeida Carvalho (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Elias Luiz de Oliveira Neto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Tocci (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Feliz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ivan Taranto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Diego Souza (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
Round 10: Win vs Carlos Valdenegro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
36% (4/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Draw |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Josué Santos (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
20%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ricardo Bastos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Carlos Barros (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
Round 3: Win vs Frederico Roque (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Draw |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
20%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 46:54
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josué Santos (Unknown)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mateus Barros (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Parra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Favoreto Borges (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marcelo Gazzaneo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.