Aurora, Shooting Star
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Agusti Guerola Garcia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gabe Sher (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winning (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rob Catton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
20th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thibaut BONNEL (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Laloy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Rodrigo Peinado (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
22nd • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Salvador Alcaide Milia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
24th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marco Casadio (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rafael Durán (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Guillermo Regueiro (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
25th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Win vs Pablo Fernández-Baldor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Grigorian Tigran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rafael Durán (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Guillermo Vergara Vazquez (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
62nd • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pierre Roux (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Quentin Castillo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Benoit Carrara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Raymond Mauge (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
68th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Salvador Alcaide Milia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raymond Mauge (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pierre Roux (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs George Douglas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Finn Baird (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 80% | Win |
73rd • 2-4-1
86%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Edgar Herrera Ramos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs IGNACIO JIMÉNEZ PÉREZ-BENAVIDES (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Gubau Jové (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sergio Martínez ibañez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Thibaut BONNEL (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
75th • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Miw Valle (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Edgar Herrera Ramos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thibaut BONNEL (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Loss vs Thymoté Senidre (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Round 6: Win vs IGNACIO JIMÉNEZ PÉREZ-BENAVIDES (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jurdan González Pinilla (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Guillermo Vergara Vazquez (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Victor Sanchez (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Gubau Jové (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.