National Championship 2026 - Sweden - Zyggy Starlight (CC)

Zyggy Starlight

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Niklas Astner

16th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Kristoffersson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Nielsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nicolas Heiden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.04
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

David Andersson

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Day (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Karlin (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Maximilian Malander (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Péter Kökény (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	15%	Draw	✗	0.17	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Alexander Karlin

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Fröberg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Andersson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Martin Kristoffersson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ola Birgersson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	85%	Draw	✓	0.86	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.