Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ruben Costers

16th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Melina Solomon (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon Daelemans (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dimi Van Edom (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Van Minsel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.53

Melvin Valderrey

13th • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arno Van Breuseghem (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michel Van der noord (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.69
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.42
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Thomas De Wolf

49th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs simon haesaerts (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kenny De rouck (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manon Godet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Khalid Abatouy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gert Verleysen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs killian vermeer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kjell Lannoo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.16
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.16
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.