FaB-Results

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at World Championship: Osaka

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Evan Ford
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
Aurora, Shooting Star
!!
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
Uzuri, Switchblade
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Aurora, Shooting Star
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 29:71
Keith Yong
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
Dash I/O
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joel Repta (Dash I/O) - Expected: 75:25
Zen, Tamer of Purpose
!
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
!!
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Arthur Murta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
yohei ohki
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Nuu, Alluring Desire
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daryl Sham (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
Zen, Tamer of Purpose
!
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matúš Martinko (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
!!
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.