World Championship: Osaka - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Evan Ford

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.37
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.13
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Keith Yong

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Repta (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Murta (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs シンヤカワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.67
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

yohei ohki

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daryl Sham (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matúš Martinko (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.98
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.