National Championship 2026 - Singapore - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kelvin Tan

11th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wei Jie Yeo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Zhang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Peh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yong Yi Chua (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sean Tan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.71
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.61

Ben Ong

36th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Ng (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nawaz Sudhakaran (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Zhang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ivan Teo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sean Tan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.31
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Alfred Lauw

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernie L (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gary Lee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Kok Tong Chew

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Teck Yeow Wong (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs An Zhu (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Teo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Albern Song

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ping How Ng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yu Heng Chew (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamen Ho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Yap (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Jie Rui C

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Allan Tan GH (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Tan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.39
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.