National Championship 2026 - Vietnam - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Phuoc Thang

16th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Phan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nguyen Tuan Anh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Duc Minh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Doanh Cao Xuan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hieu Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Quy Nguyen Quynh Ngoc (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.53
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.52

Phú Nguyễn Khả

14th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hung Nguyen (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Son Vu Anh (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Giang Hoang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Long Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hiep Le (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Doanh Cao Xuan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.40

Mai Dao

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Than Thang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hieu Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lân Nguyễn (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Duc Minh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Phan Quan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.65
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Lại Thành

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thành Tô (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trong Hieu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nguyen Tuan Anh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Quang Duong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hung Nguyen (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.