Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Duc Minh

24th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lane Thomason (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kiều VAnh (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phuoc Thang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mai Dao (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

95:5

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Nhu y Tran thi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.15

Than Thang

11th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mai Dao (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tùng Nguyễn Lâm (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Son Vu Anh (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Quy Nguyen Quynh Ngoc (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Duy Ta (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Henry Phan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Quy Nguyen Quynh Ngoc

21st • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nguyen Tuan Anh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Nguyễn (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hieu Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Than Thang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

95:5

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nhu y Tran thi (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Phuoc Thang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.13
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.