Sunday Showdown: Jakarta 2026 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Muhamad Agus Suriyanto

3rd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Sugianto (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christian Wijaya (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Benedictus See (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Melvin Tan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ervan Andre (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.16
R8	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.22
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Hakim Green

10th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nevin Aysar Madian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Soetrisno (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Julio Anthony (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gede Mahar Ditriwan (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Randy Stephen (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rhasta Chuah (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Abdurrahman Putra

12th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Agis (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zong Sheng Tan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kenneth Nathan Wijaya (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ade Fahri Syany (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rhasta Chuah (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Natanael Avellino

17th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Liko Naruttama (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Naresfaren Naresfaren (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daryl Sham (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alfred Lauw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nevin Aysar Madian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dyatmika Paramaanindya (Levia) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.07
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Melvin Tan

25th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Om Haas (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Awen Yapri (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chris Saw (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gede Mahar Ditriwan (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Muhamad Agus Suriyanto (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gian Arnandi (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Edward Leonardo

27th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nguyen Tuan Anh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Ng (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Avex Lim Lian Hui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alfred Lauw (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Masayuki Hori

29th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lexiss Pong (Terra) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Benedictus See (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hansen Devin (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mai Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lean Gabriel Alfafara (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Avex Lim Lian Hui (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Ivan Marli

58th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Agis (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geri Satria (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Willy Willy (Rhinar) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daud Santoso (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hieu Tran (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Benedictus See (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Julio Anthony

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Kemmerer (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mischa Guzel Madian (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hakim Green (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Azim Fitri

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Julianto (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Budi Surya (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Chua (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Octaviano Iteh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Wibowo Aji

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Danial Faizsal (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Wiguna (Nuu) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.