Pleiades, Superstar at Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026

Pleiades, Superstar

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Madeline Southwood

24th • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dusk Low (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 稜馬石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.94
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.15
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Leon Schmidtke

144th • 3-6-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 征隆内山 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

20:80

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.66
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vincent Lim

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edric Ramos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.02
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

RICARDO DIAZ

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hayashi Takashi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Eastwood (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.