Aurora, Shooting Star at Calling: Philadelphia 2025
Aurora, Shooting Star
19 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
32nd • 9-4-0
31%
Meta
+3.6
Perf
6.5
Surp
5.3
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Wontroba (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
15:85
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Craig Ketchum (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Ka Chan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
40:60
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Quinn Wongkew (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
Round 9: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R11 LL
Round 11: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
R12
R12 LL
Round 12: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R13
R13 LL
Round 13: Win vs Nick Butcher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
31% (4/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
67th • 7-6-0
69%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
5.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Ben Black (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs George Dilling (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Fay (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R8
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Austin Redington (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R9
R9 LL
Round 9: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R10
R10 LL
Round 10: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
15:85
R11 LL
Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
R12
R12 LL
Round 12: Win vs None ()
15:85
R13 LL
Round 13: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
69% (9/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R12 | 50% | Win | |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Yiou Liu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Dexter Canright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
15:85
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
15:85
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
R8
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs William Nguyen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Grant Kern (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
15:85
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
Round 5: Win vs Justin Haenel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Emery Powell (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
15:85
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 15% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Howie Dao ()
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Jeffrey Rybak (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
15:85
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
Round 4: Win vs CODY READY (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
15:85
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R8
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Kyle James (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs nicklas starland (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Matt Sullivan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
15:85
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
15:85
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83
40:60
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs John Cooper (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Cox (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Borger (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Kershaw (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs David McCartney (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Jeffrey Rybak (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Annabelle McQuade (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Bun Ar (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
15:85
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83
40:60
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Kristian Perez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Lester (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Porter Boroski (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs John Tucker (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Matt Schubert (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
60:40
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Michael Welch (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Matt Sullivan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
40:60
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Jeffrey Rybak (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs James Kandziolka (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Zoey Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Hoover (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Tomas Liutvinas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Williamson ()
Round 2: Win vs Josh Perry (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
15:85
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Matt Gaskin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Evan George (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
15:85
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Hoover (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
0.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Neeraj Satav (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Frederick Hefer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
0.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
15:85
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Mark sipics (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (0.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 15% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.