World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pedro Ugioni

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joao Morato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.71
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Younghyun Jeong

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alon Edelman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 16:84

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.55
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

David Lee

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 15:85

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.