Katsu, the Wanderer at World Championship: Philadelphia 2025

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pedro Ugioni

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joao Morato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Younghyun Jeong

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alon Edelman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.85
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

David Lee

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.