Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Singapore 2025 — FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 6-6-0

42%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruben Salvador (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Lau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jarren Goh (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Pang Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Antonio Kutter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Dash I/O

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62

Prism, Awakener of Sol

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nigel Teo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Fang, Dracai of Blades

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Raine Karan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.60
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.37
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.69
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.95
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kho Fong Tong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mervyn Lin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Max Löhe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.50
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.07
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dawei Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natanael Avellino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Muhd Noh (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs joel amad (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marcus Ho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yong Yi Chua (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.37
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.94
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

dropped • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

Kano, Dracai of Aether

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Troy Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Abou Hala (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natanael Avellino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alissa Ellingson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joniel Ibasco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.73
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.94
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Narin Leelaporn

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kangsen Ang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs justin widjaja (Unknown)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Fang, Dracai of Blades

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kok Tong Chew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Muhamad Aqil Khaizuran Bin Sani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Katsu, the Wanderer

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Aziz Riphat (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.67
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ade Fahri Syany

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Bryan Dayak

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Dorinthea Ironsong

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julio Anthony (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.37
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs KC Lui (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Lau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.