Arakni, Marionette
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-6-0
42%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
6.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ruben Salvador (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jose Lau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jarren Goh (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Pang Chan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Antonio Kutter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Nigel Teo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Round 12: Loss vs Raine Karan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
4.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kho Fong Tong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mervyn Lin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Bradshaw (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Round 7: Loss vs Hayden Dale (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 8: Loss vs Max Löhe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dawei Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Natanael Avellino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Muhd Noh (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs joel amad (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marcus Ho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yong Yi Chua (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Troy Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Abou Hala (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Natanael Avellino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alissa Ellingson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joniel Ibasco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kangsen Ang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs justin widjaja (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Loss vs Kok Tong Chew (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Muhamad Aqil Khaizuran Bin Sani (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Aziz Riphat (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs YuDi Chen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Julio Anthony (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs KC Lui (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jose Lau (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.