World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Germany (National Festival Germany 2025: Blitz) - Aurora (Blitz)

Aurora

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Frederic Fuessmann

9th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nikolas Kersting (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Nils Herrmann (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Frank Pilchowski (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Frank Pilchowski

24th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jakob Immer (Verdance) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Buchs (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Philipp Steinfort (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Verdance	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tobias Göppert

30th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andre Geese (Arakni) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Holtappel (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Roger Braun (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Blitz	Arakni	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nikolas Kersting

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Aurora) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Max Schmidt (Kayo) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Canaki (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Blitz	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Stürmer

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Rose (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Puffin) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Puffin	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.