World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Switzerland - Kano, Dracai of Aether (CC)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Samuel Mudry

5th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Rafael Boog

9th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.86	0.47
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Badertscher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcel Eggimann (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.