Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Christchurch

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sam Payne

40th • 5-6-0

45%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Hensworth (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Hulse (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Unknown)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Henry Groves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Holland (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sam Davison (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jayden Allan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

45% (5/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.45
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.95
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.62
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.34
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Georgia Sumner

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Bastion (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Chu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.40
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Maxwell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Groves (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marie Watson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.