Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Calling: Christchurch 2025

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Seb Hart (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs bill huynh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs alisa qian (Unknown)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Klopper (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Georgia Sumner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Drew Giessler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.26
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cassandra Hancock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 36:64

Nuu, Alluring Desire

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Chu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Gardiner (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edward Kim (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.79
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Elliott Nichols

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs aaron newson (Unknown)

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam McCallum (Unknown)

Jarl Vetreiði

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

kenny forrester

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Holland (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Aurora, Shooting Star

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Poll (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.