Battle Hardened: Amsterdam - Briar, Warden of Thorns (LL)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mikey Dwyer

22nd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

75:25

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Gus Enger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 82:18

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	LL	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.24
R7	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

42nd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.45
R3	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R7	LL	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Lee (Unknown)

80:20

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 82:18

75:25

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Joris Verhelst (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.11
R3	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.30
R5	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Benjamin Van donkelaar

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Christofer Lindholm (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R3	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.