Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: Amsterdam

Kano, Dracai of Aether

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

1st • 9-1-0

40%

Meta

+4.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

6.9

Diff

Bravo, Star of the Show

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Adam Opalski (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 46:54

R2

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs David Yau (Unknown)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R3

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Bravo, Star of the Show

45:55

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Jack Canty (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 46:54

Iyslander, Stormbind

R5

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Chane, Bound by Shadow

20:80

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Christofer Lindholm (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

R8

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Liam Holden (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light

45:55

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Austin Somers (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 45:55

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R10 LL

Round 10: Win vs Nova Chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.11
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.44
R5	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.81	1.43
R7	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.93
R8	LL	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.02
R10	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Peter Buddensiek

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Iyslander, Stormbind

R1

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

20:80

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 18:82

Bravo, Star of the Show

45:55

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Adam Opalski (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 46:54

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 29:71

Lexi, Livewire

60:40

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Jose Alves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 60:40

Briar, Warden of Thorns

20:80

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R4	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

55:45

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Magne Gjennestad (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

R2

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs João Gomes (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

R3

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Holden (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Iyslander, Stormbind

R4

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	LL	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	LL	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

R2

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Peng Joon (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.