Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joshua Myles Lim

5th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Victor Felix (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Emerson Palomares (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Harvey Jade Jadena (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joel Guzman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R8	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.40
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Carl Rivera

21st • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Antioquia (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Randrex Toledo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edric Ramos (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jose Gerard Kawada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alec Xavier Que Esteves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Gerald Dalan (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.85
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Draw	✓	0.71	-

Jaime Luigi Gonzales

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Banac (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nemesio Michael Desales (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaliyah Shairyll Gozon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Drei Cortez

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucinio De Guzman (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paolo rodrigo Pamintuan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Gerard Kawada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.