Aurora, Legacy of Tempest
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.5
Surp
6.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mikko Pena (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Elendil Gil-galad Cañete (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Laraya (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Emmanuel Daguinod (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Joshua Myles Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 9: Win vs Keenan Fernandez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Alec Xavier Que Esteves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
6.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 25% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.