Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wayu Saengphithak

17th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mutthawakul Hoysung (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Santat Angsupan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wisanu Pohom (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Postsawee Aunruean (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs kantanat poom chukiat (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs kritsatorn saengweang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.87

Worrachot Sujiarapat

26th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natchanon kamhanghan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thanat Chullamandala (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Naphattarapong Sirithawat (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Louie Poblete (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Wipu Junkeaw (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.45

Narin Leelaporn

12th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thanadol Supnitikul (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tawich Paparsamut (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs "Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs siwa vichaidit (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Phongnat Niamsorn (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.25

Wisanu Pohom

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dachkone Vasonchuenchochai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phuntawit (Jojo) Lertphunyavuttikul (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wayu Saengphithak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natthakamol(nack) Rotboonma (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.