National Championship 2026 - Thailand - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nakara Juntavong

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Blazich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pongrat Winaiwatthanawong (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miti Vichyastit (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tawich Paparsamut (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Dachkone Vasonchuenchochai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tobias Schmiedeberg (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.92
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.52
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Tanawat Sukkaew

3rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louie Poblete (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aumnad Pondechawut (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Teerawish Kotesiri (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Prempracha Saensupar (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thanat Chullamandala (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.67
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

"Haste" Sompong Leartvimolkasame

40th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Krittawat Sakchuwong (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Worrachot Sujiarapat (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Teeravuth Vachirapaneegul (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Postsawee Aunruean (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Nicholas Wong

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.