National Championship 2026 - Thailand - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wongsathorn Wongwanichjitt

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nopphrakorn Kerdsamut (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cheeparoj Tansukkasem (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phongnat Niamsorn (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.23
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Aumnad Pondechawut

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thierry Enzo Sirawit Stocchi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tanawat Sukkaew (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Miti Vichyastit (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Nuttapon Songkhakul

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kantanat poom chukiat (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs sasawat sirakosol (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Natthakamol(nack) Rotboonma (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kanokpatch Chansirichok (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.06
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Nattapon Phanthanithilerd

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kanawut Pakkawirasakul (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.